Its strangely silent in Manipur today. And life in capital city Imphal seems, on the face of it, quite normal. 

Offices, schools and colleges are open and record good attendance, business establishments do brisk business and rush hour traffic is its usual chaotic self. 

Cafeterias and diners are open till at least 9 pm, which is quite late by Imphal’s standards. Even theatres and art galleries are open and draw moderate crowds. 

Also, the guns have fallen silent in the sprawling capital city’s peripheries. The ubiquitous reports of gunbattles between Meiteis and Kukis in the foothills of the mountain ranges that ring Imphal Valley that would hog newspaper headlines with sickening regularity every day seem to have become history. 

It is as if the militants and vigilantes of the two warring communities — Meiteis and Kukis — have called an unofficial truce. Even a week ago, they were hunting down and killing each other. 

Again, till a few days ago, members of the Meitei radical group, Arambai Tenggol, used to patrol the streets of Imphal in Maruti Gypsy vehicles armed with sophisticated weapons and clad in combat fatigues. There was little to distinguish them from the similarly-clad and armed police.

What is even more surprising, perhaps, is the complete halt to extortions from businessmen, doctors and other professionals and even the common people. 

Meitei and Kuki groups had been extorting huge sums of money from everyone in their respective places to fund their vigilantism that, they asserted, was necessary to protect their respective communities from attacks by vigilantes and militants of the other community. 

Not only that, they had been taking away private vehicles, especially SUVs and hatchbacks, from their owners at will. A huge number of car thefts have been reported from the state in recent months. 

But all that has stopped. Imphal, and the rest of the state, are enveloped in a veil of calm and peace. 

But things are actually far from normal. Because under normal circumstances, Imphal should have been awash with political hoardings and party flags and should have reverberated to political slogans and high-pitched political campaigns. 

With the Lok Sabha elections two weeks away (Imphal city and its surrounding areas comprise the Imphal Inner Lok Sabha seat where polling will be held on 19 April), this city should have seen hectic political activity. 

But there’s none of that. No posters, banners, hoardings or buntings. The only visible indication that elections are around the corner are hoardings put up by the local election authorities urging voters to exercise their franchise. 

All this is because the Arambai Tenggol has decreed that political parties should not hold rallies, public meetings and campaigns openly and loudly in view of the violence that has scarred the state. 

That such a diktat by a radical and vigilante group which often transgresses the boundaries of the law is being obeyed by all political parties and candidates is proof of the strong influence of the Arambai Tenggol on Manipur’s polity. 

Campaigning for the forthcoming elections is, thus, missing their zing. The primary candidates — BJP’s Thounaojam Basanta Kumar Singh, Congress’ Angomcha Bimol Akoijam, Republican Party of India’s Maheshwar Thounaojam and Rajmukar Somendro Singh who is backed by the Manipur Peoples’ Party (MPP) — have been holding small meetings in their party offices. 

“We are holding small meetings at my residence. Community leaders and party workers from various parts of the constituency are being invited and we’re meeting them in small groups. I shall also be going door-to-door in some areas to campaign,” BJP’s Basanta Kumar Singh told Swarajya. 

Congress candidate Bimol Akoijam, a professor in Delhi’s Jawaharlal Nehru University (JNU), is yet to step out of his residence to campaign. He has also been meeting supporters, party workers and representatives from different constituency areas in small groups. 

“I have many teams of dedicated volunteers and supporters and they’re campaigning on my behalf. Yes, it would have been better if I addressed public meetings and held rallies, but I had to tailor my campaign to meet the restrictions (imposed by Arambai Tenggol),” RPI’s Maheshwar told Swarajya. 

Low-key election campaigning apart, people are at a loss to explain why the Arambai Tenggol vigilantes have withdrawn from public spaces and why the guns have fallen silent. 

“This peace is illusory. Things are quiet because of the forthcoming elections. But once the polls are over, I fear the violence and disruptions to public order will resume,” said Maheshwar Thounaojam. 

“This feels like the lull before a storm. The vigilantes and militants on both sides know that with the Election Commission of India (ECI) monitoring the situation, security forces will deal very firmly with them if they cross the line. That’s why they’re holding their fire now,” said Manipur University professor R K Somorendro.

A renowned gynaecologist in Imphal who has a lucrative practice told Swarajya that this is the lull before the storm. “Once elections are over and security forces go back to their barracks, the criminals will be back and will start their killings and extortions,” he said. 

But having experienced relative peace and a semblance of normalcy after eleven months of bloodshed, curfews and restrictions, and mayhem, the people of Manipur want the peace to continue. 

“We want the rule of the law to prevail. Militants, criminals and lumpens have been given a free hand for far too and it is high time the rule of the law is enforced very strictly. If security forces are given an absolutely free hand and if they are completely impartial, it will not be difficult to restore permanent peace in Manipur,” said T H Anand, a lawyer. 

Everyone, including leaders cutting across political lines, agree with him. The rule of the law, they say, has to prevail. 

And this should extend to detecting and deporting illegal immigrants (Kukis who have come in from Myanmar), cracking down on poppy cultivation (in the Kuki-inhabited areas) and obliterating (Kuki) drug cartels, launching operations against militants of all hues, recovering all arms that have been looted from police armouries, proscribing radical and vigilante groups and disarming them, and launching a drive to nab all criminals who have been commandeering vehicles and extorting money from people. 

“Lawlessness breeds violence and disorder, so the rule of the law has to be established. This may meet with resistance initially, but it is imperative for peace,” said RPI’s Maheshwar. All others in the electoral fray agree with him. 

The ball is now in the government’s court; only tough and even-handed measures can ensure that the prevailing calm turns into lasting peace.