Uncles and nephews fighting it out over power politics isn’t something new to Maharashtra. Then whether its the rivalry between the venerable Madhavrao Peshwa and his uncle Raghunathrao in the 18th century or Raj Thackeray parting ways with his uncle and Shiv Sena founder Balasaheb Thackeray two decades back. However, this time it’s different.

Ajit Pawar, nephew of the octogenarian leader Sharad Pawar has not only been successful in engineering a split in the party but has also managed to be recognised as the rightful claimant to it in its entirety.

The Election Commission (EC) on February 7, 2024, recognised the Ajit Pawar-led rebel faction’s claim by giving it control over the party symbol- the ticking clock- along with its name- Nationalist Congress Party (NCP). Subsequently, the Sharad Pawar faction has renamed itself as NCP (Sharadchandra Pawar).

While the Sharad Pawar faction hasn’t decided its new election symbol yet, both factions are awaiting the decision of the Maharashtra Legislative Assembly Speaker over the disqualification case filed by the senior Pawar’s faction against the defectors post party split.

On the other hand, encouraged by the EC’s verdict, Ajit Pawar is extensively touring different parts of the state, attempting to take control of the party’s offices and opening newer ones in areas not having one. The Ajit Pawar-led NCP has also seen an influx of influential sub-regional leaders with the latest being the entry of former former Bandra East Legislator Baba Siddiqui and his son Zeeshan, who is the incumbent Legislator from Bandra West.

Sharad Pawar’s name over the years has attracted several epithets. While his followers affectionately call him ‘saheb’ and continue look up to him as the ‘bhavi pantapradhan’ (future prime minister), his critics refer to him as ‘sade teen jilhyancha raja’ (i.e. the king whose realm is limited only to three and a half districts, those being Pune, Satara, Sangli and parts of Kolhapur).

Pawar’s political career is chequered with several ups and downs, u-turns and long jumps, and long-lasting friendships. However, considering the present circumstances, it seems that the political fortunes of the maverick, who has survived many setbacks in the past, are in real trouble.

Sharad Pawar- the kingmaker who couldn’t be the king

Right since the days of his initiation into politics, Sharad Pawar has been successful in building the image of a ‘philosopher king’. Rising under the tutelage of the state’s first chief minister- Yashwantrao Chavan, Pawar has consistently maintained a calm and composed demanour, building bonds with several noted authors, poets, actors and even classical singers over the years.

However, when it comes to politics, lay masses refer to him as ‘tel lavlela pahilwan’ (i.e. a wrestler who has oil smeared all over his body) who can give the slip to his fellow politicians in the most unimaginable ways.

For instance, Pawar has the achievement of becoming the youngest chief-minister of Maharashtra at the age of 38 to his name. This he did by engineering a split in the state unit of the Congress in 1978. By doing so, Pawar managed to topple the Vasant Dada Patil-led government and formed a government led by his newly formed Indian National Congress (Socialist). However, this experiment was short lived as Indira Gandhi dismissed all non-Congress governments post her return to power in 1980.

Later in 1987, Pawar rejoined the Congress only to break away again in 1999 and form his own party- the NCP. This he did ostensibly in opposition to the foreign identity of Sonia Gandhi who had been made the party’s President and was seen as the future prime minister. In the intervening years, Pawar was also seen as a strong contender to the prime minister’s post but it was P V Narasimha Rao who managed to rise to the occasion.

Come 2004, he entered the Congress led United Progressive Alliance (UPA) which had the same Sonia Gandhi at its apex who he had opposed a few years back.

Ideologically, Pawar has always maintained that he firmly believes in the ideas of Shahu-Phule-Ambedkar and Nehruvian socialism and that he would never ally with the ‘Hindutva-vadi’ BJP. However, post 2014 state elections, his NCP extended external support to the Devendra Fadnavis led BJP government while the latter’s ally Shiv Sena was buying time. It is such flip-flops that have earned Pawar the reputation of ‘u-turn bahaddar’ in colloquial terms.

Apart from this, Pawar is also called out by his critics for splitting families in politics as well as political alliances. For instance, he managed to poach Dhananjay Munde, nephew of the BJP leader Gopinath Munde, while the former was seen as a rising BJP-youth wing leader from Marathwada.

In terms of breaking or splitting alliances, it is important to note that Pawar had severed its alliance with the Congress in the 2014 state assembly elections, only to join hands again in 2019. And if this wasn’t enough, he also managed to split the BJP-Shiv Sena alliance which had gained majority by promising Uddhav Thackeray premiership of the state.

‘It’s a family matter’…

Ajit Pawar is seen as a leader who has waited long for his moment of glory in the shadows of his uncle senior Pawar. However, every time there have been murmurs that Sharad Pawar will be stepping down from all leadership roles and retire from active politics, the latter has only tightened his grip further accompanied by some theatrics.

In May 2023, when senior Pawar announced his retirement in an event held to publish the new edition of his autobiography, NCP cadres sat on fast unto death to demand him to cancel his decision. Ajit Pawar, who looked visibly disturbed by the fracas had then asked the protestors- ‘What is your problem if he (Sharad Pawar) wishes to retire? Don’t you wish to see me lead?’

Post several meetings and calls from many leaders, Pawar agreed to continue as the party chief. While it was being expected that Ajit Pawar would be appointed as the new state unit chief, it was Jayant Patil whose tenure was continued.

This is said to have been the tipping point for Ajit Pawar to break away from the party. A month later on June 1, 2023, the rebel nephew, away from the public eye, filed a petition with the EC stating that the party leadership was functioning in an undemocratic fashion, in contravention of its own constitution.

On July 2, 2023, the split was complete when Ajit Pawar along with nine leaders from his faction were sworn in as the Deputy Chief Minister and Cabinet Ministers respectively. With trusted confidantes of Sharad Pawar such as Dilip Walse-Patil and Praful Patel joining the ranks of the rebel faction, this was seen as the senior Pawar’s very own ‘karma’ moment.

Will NCP Ajit Pawar trounce NCP Sharad Pawar in the coming elections?

With the Lok Sabha elections followed by the state assembly and municipal polls around the corner, both rival NCPs are now testing the waters. Since both, senior Pawar as well as Ajit Pawar, are influential leaders with strong grassroots connect, there is a lack of unanimity as to who will grab the highest number of seats.

The two dominant streams of opinion are as follows:

1) Although Maharashtra’s politicians, especially those from the INC and NCP, say that it is a ‘purogami rajya’ (progressive state), caste calculations and rivalries in the state’s politics are no different from that of any other Indian state.

Sharad Pawar, until recently, was seen as the leader of ‘Marathas,’ which is the numerically as well as socio-politically dominant caste in the state. However, his as well as his daughter Supriya Sule’s statements against the demand for Maratha reservation have created a lot of resentment in the community. Thus, giving the impression that it will be an advantage BJP situation.

But veteran political journalists and observers believe that this necessarily doesn’t guarantee an advantage to BJP or to the NCP of Ajit Pawar.

An analyst on condition of anonymity said that considering the state’s background of a strong Non-Brahmin Movement and Pawar’s ability to rake up the ‘social-justice’ discourse whenever his position is under threat, Ajit Pawar splitting the party and joining hands with the BJP led by a leader like Devendra Fadnavis hasn’t gone down well with its rural dominant caste voters.

Apart from this, there is also the possibility of senior Pawar pushing ahead his grandnephew- Rohit Pawar, incumbent Legislator from Karjat-Jamkhed, as the face of his party’s leadership in the state.

“One thing is sure, as long as the senior Pawar is on the scene, BJP will never have a cake-walk in the state politics,” he said.

2) The other stream of thought points out that while the observations on the social psyche of Maharashtra are true, times have changed.

Analysts point out that Marathas as well as the OBCs had given BJP the highest number of seats in the state elections twice- in 2014 as well as in 2019.

Notably, Ajit Pawar, with his image as a disciplined task master appeals to a large number of voters across the state. Thus, if BJP along with the NCP Ajit Pawar and Ekanth Shinde-led Shiv Sena are able to sustain the current political equations and more importantly placate caste groups demanding reservations, the troika stands a good chance to benefit in the coming elections.

In terms of preparation for the elections, of the two rival NCP factions, the Ajit Pawar faction seems to have already gained an upper hand. The rebel Pawar has been regularly camping in the Baramati Lok Sabha constituency, presently represented by Sharad Pawar’s daughter Supriya Sule.

In a public address delivered recently, Ajit Pawar said, “Consider that I am the one who is standing on all seats and just click the button next to my party symbol.” Ostensibly taking a jibe at his uncle, he further said, “Someone might come saying that this is the last time I am doing election speeches and vote for the incumbent Lok Sabha representative. Don’t fall for such show of emotions.”

2024 may well decide many pending issues in Maharashtra politics, one way or the other.