In 2015, the Karnataka State Commission for Backward Classes (KSCBC) surveyed the length and breadth of the state and conducted a caste survey.

It cost the state treasury nearly 200 crore rupees and the leaked results did not make either the Congress or the BJP happy.

Why?

The numbers, leaked, indicated a decline in the population of the Lingayats and the Vokkaligas, evoking discontent among the communities’ seers, leaders and politicians.

The leaked data showed a decline in the percentage of the Lingayat and Vokkaliga populations from 17 and 14 per cent respectively to below 10 per cent.

Although both communities fall under the OBC category, they are considered ‘forward castes’ and are the most influential politically in Karnataka. They are said to account for 27 per cent of the state’s population.

On the other hand, the caste survey, according to reports, estimated the total population of Muslims, STs, SCs and Kurubas to be nearly 50 per cent in the state.

While leaders belonging to the communities within the Congress are in favour of making the survey report public, those who belong to the Lingayat and the Vokkaliga communities are staunchly opposing it.

Since Karnataka’s formation, the state’s politics has been dominated by the Lingayats and the Vokkaligas.

From S Nijalingappa, B D Jatti, Veerendra Patil to B S Yediyurappa, Jagadish Shettar and Basavaraj Bommai, the state has had more than ten chief ministers from the Lingayat community alone. Vokkaligas have had their fair share of representation at the top leadership level with leaders like H D Deve Gowda, his son H D Kumaraswamy, S M Krishna and D V Sadanand Gowda.

No party can assume power in Karnataka without the support of either or both of the communities in the state.

CM Siddaramaiah, however, enjoys the support of the AHINDA communities — Alpasankhyataru (Minorities), HinduLidavaru (Backward Castes) and Dalitaru (Dalits).

At the moment, Siddaramaiah is caught in a conundrum over whether to release the survey report officially or not. Its release would strengthen his support among the AHINDA groups but at the same time alienate the Lingayats and the Vokkaliga communities.

Even AICC chief Mallikarjun Kharge, when confronted in Rajya Sabha over the caste survey issue, bracketed D K Shivakumar, the deputy chief minister, with the BJP and said that the upper castes are not in favour of making the report public.

If the Karnataka CM wants the report to be an election plank in the Lok Sabha election of the summer, time is running out. Once the Moral Code of Conduct in enforced by the Election Commission of India, the report cannot be made public.

Congress insiders tell Swarajya that the party, in principle, stands in favour of the minorities and wish to see them empowered. However, the numbers of the caste survey in Karnataka have complicated things for them. While they want to make their vote bank happy, it cannot come at the cost of upsetting other communities in the state.

As a result, in all likelihood, no party, including Congress, will agree to make the findings of the caste survey public and endorse it.

BJP leaders Swarajya spoke to said that the options are limited for Chief Minister Siddaramaiah as he cannot make the same promises time and again.

On its part, the BJP now looks ready to take on the Congress. With B Y Vijayendra taking charge as state president, the Lingayat community seems happy with the party’s choice. At the Assembly front, R Ashok, a Vokkaliga leader, was given appointed as the Leader of Opposition.

In this context, there is but one immediate solution for Chief Minister Siddaramaiah — delay, deflect and distract.