Symbolism and symbolic acts hold great significance in politics. And that was on ample display at the traditional ‘at home’ (high tea) hosted by state Governor Rajendra Vishwanath Arlekar on the lawns of the Raj Bhawan in Patna Friday afternoon. 

The ‘at home’ is a British-era formal event hosted by state governors and the country’s President on very important occasions (like Republic Day) where the chief minister, his entire cabinet, top government officials, defence brass and prominent citizens from all walks of life are invited for ‘high tea’. 

Nitish Kumar arrived at the Raj Bhawan in Patna Friday afternoon and sat in the chair marked for him. On his right was a chair marked ‘Shri Tejaswi Yadav, Hon’be Deputy Chief Minister’. Kumar went and sat in his designated chair.  

But Yadav, who had attended the Republic Day flag hoisting and parade earlier on in the day along with Nitish Kumar–even though he did not sit next to Kumar and was seen huddled with RJD ministers–did not turn up at the Raj Bhawan. Nor did other RJD ministers and leaders who had been invited.

After some time, Nitish Kumar gestured to his close aide and building construction minister Ashok Choudhary, to sit in the chair marked for Tejaswi Yadav. 

Choudhary walked up, and removed the piece of paper with Yadav’s name written on it that was pinned to the chair, before sitting on that chair next to the Chief Minister. 

The removal of the piece of paper with Yadav’s name on it marked the symbolic rupturing of the testy ties between the JD(U) and the Rashtriya Janata Dal (RJD).

A little later, Governor Arlekar sat in his designated chair to Kumar’s left. Kumar was then seen engrossed in conversation with the Governor and  BJP leader and Leader of Opposition Vijay Kumar Sinha. 

After returning to his residence from the Raj Bhawan, Chief Minister Kumar convened a meeting of top leaders of the party. He is learnt to have told them that he has made up his mind to sever ties with the ruling alliance in the state and rejoin the NDA. 

Kumar told his party colleagues that the move will strengthen the JD(U) and assured them that their interests will be better served in the NDA than the mahagathbandhan. 

Kumar is learnt to have spoken to Union Home Minister Amit Shah Friday evening and the broad contours of the agreement that will lead to his re-entry into the NDA were discussed and finalised. 

Will the Assembly be dissolved?

As per the agreement, Nitish Kumar will submit his resignation to the Governor Saturday (January 27) or Sunday. What, however, remains unclear is if Kumar will also recommend the dissolution of the Assembly and fresh elections, or will be sworn in again. 

The BJP wants fresh elections, and has told Kumar that the chances of the JD(U) bagging a good number of seats as part of the NDA in the forthcoming Lok Sabha polls as well as the Assembly polls (if they are held simultaneously) are very high. 

While Kumar agrees with this assessment, he is a bit wary of giving up the CM’s post. The BJP leadership has made it clear to him that he will not be allowed to remain CM after the next Assembly elections. 

Thus, Kumar would like the Assembly polls to be held as scheduled in November 2025. That will give him a couple of years to leave his imprint on Bihar. 

But the BJP is wary of this because that will also leave open the possibility of Kumar, who has earned the sobriquet of ‘Paltu Ram’ for his frequent U-turns, of leaving the NDA once again if it suits him. 

Senior state leaders of the BJP have also warned the party’s central leadership about this and have rooted for dissolution of the Assembly right away. 

Nitish Kumar has been told that Assembly speaker Awadh Bihari Choudhary, who belongs to the RJD and is considered to be very close to Lalu Yadav, may play foul in case Kumar continues as CM. 

Choudhary will, in all likelihood, refuse to step down and removing him through a vote in the Assembly may get entangled in legal complications. Choudhary, who has been speaking to Lalu Yadav regularly over the past few days, may arbitrarily disqualify some JD(U) or BJP members and that would create a constitutional and political crisis in the state. 

Hence, Kumar has been told, it would be much better to step down, recommend dissolution of the Assembly and go in for fresh Assembly elections. 

Such a step will also enable him to take the high moral ground since he will be seeking a fresh mandate from the people for his re-entry into the NDA. Kumar has been told that getting an endorsement from the electorate will help him stave off criticism about his U-turns in politics. 

Kumar is said to be coming around to the view that dissolving the Assembly and facing fresh elections will be a wise step. 

Lalu Yadav Dejected

Meanwhile, a dejected Lalu Yadav has realised that it is the end of the road for him. He had reportedly reconciled to the idea of his party losing power and his dream of installing his son Tejaswi as the chief minister being dashed. 

Lalu Yadav has told his senior party colleagues that they should now be prepared to lose power and return to the opposition. 

A senior RJD leader who spoke to the RJD chief Friday (January 26) told Swarajya that Yadav also seems to have reconciled himself to the prospect of faring poorly in the Lok Sabha elections. 

“Laluji realises fully well that Nitish Kumar’s exit from the INDI Alliance will deal a crushing blow to the mahagathbandhan in Bihar and will be a huge setback to the alliance’s electoral prospects. He has indicated that the chances of the RJD and its allies (the Congress and Left) winning more than even four to five seats in the Lok Sabha elections after the JD(U)’s exit is quite dim,” the RJD leader who holds a senior position in the party said. 

Lalu, however, has counselled his party colleagues against criticising Nitish Kumar and the JD(U) very harshly. “He is of the opinion that things can change later and too much bitterness will prevent a possible reconciliation with the JD(U) in future,” the RJD leader told Swarajya. 

That is why Lalu Yadav was incensed when his Singapore-based daughter Rohini Acharya, criticised Nitish Kumar very strongly in a series of posts on X. Lalu Yadav asked Rohini, who donated a kidney to her father a year ago, to immediately delete her posts. But the damage had already been done by them and Kumar is said to have taken umbrage over this. 

Will some Congress leaders defect to JD(U)?

The RJD-led mahagathbandhan in Bihar, and by extension the INDI Alliance, may face yet another setback with some senior Congress leaders, along with their supporters, planning to join the JD(U).

Rumours about this have been circulating over the past few days and gained strength because a couple of these Congress leaders have been seen meeting senior JD(U) leaders. 

If Congress leaders defect to the JD(U), it will be a big embarrassment for the party on the eve of Rahul Gandhi’s Bharat Jodo Nyay Yatra’s entry into Bihar. 

The Congress has 19 MLAs in the Assembly, and at least seven of them are contemplating a switch. Nitish Kumar is said to have been wooing the Congress leaders in order to strengthen his party. 

Kumar feels that a switchover by a few senior Congress leaders will also improve his bargaining position with the BJP. 

Announcement soon

But whatever be the case, an announcement is expected soon, maybe even as early as Saturday (January 27) afternoon or evening. 

The BJP central leadership, as well as Kumar, are typing up all loose ends before Kumar formally announces his departure from the mahagathbandhan and re-entry into the NDA. 

The BJP central leadership has already spoken to the party’s allies in Bihar–the Lok Janshakti Party (Ram Vilas) headed by Chirag Paswan, former CM Jitan Ram Manjhi who heads the Hindustan Awam Morcha-Secular (HAM-S), Union minister Pashupati Paras who heads the  Rashtriya Lok Janshakti Party (RLJP) and Upendra Kushwaha of the Rashtriya Lok Janata Dal (RLJD).

All the allies have been told about the JD(U)’s return to the NDA and have been assured that their interests would not be affected by the latest development. 

All eyes are now on Nitish Kumar as he prepares himself to part ways with Lalu Yadav once again.