A month after Hamas carried out a large-scale terror attack in southern Israel, resulting in the death of 1400 people and abduction of over 200 to Gaza, the conflict in the region continues to cause devastation. As anticipated, this event has elicited a mixed response from countries worldwide. The Western world led by the United States has largely voiced support for Israel, while countries such as China and Russia have opted for a more neutral stance. This situation adds to the list of issues where China and the US do not share a common perspective.

One of the first statements by the Chinese Ministry of Foreign Affairs’ spokesperson, Wang Wenbin, read: “All countries have the right to self-defence, but they should abide by international law, especially international humanitarian law, and protect the safety of civilians… The lives of the Palestinian people, like those of other countries, should be protected.” China did not condemn Hamas and has not designated Hamas a terrorist organisation. The initial statement coming out of China focused more on urging both sides, Israel and Hamas, to exercise restraint.

On 19 October, during a meeting with the visiting Egyptian Prime Minister Mostafa Madbouly at the third Belt and Road Forum for International Cooperation in Beijing, Chinese President Xi Jinping underscored the urgent need for an immediate ceasefire. “The top priority is to stop the fighting as soon as possible, prevent the conflict from spreading or even getting out of control and causing a severe humanitarian crisis,” Xi stated.

Nevertheless, reading the tea leaves, it is clear that there may be more to China’s position than meets the eye. On 30 October, reports emerged suggesting that well-known Chinese mapping platforms, Alibaba and Baidu, had removed the label ‘Israel’ from their maps while keeping the names of major cities and borders intact. Nonetheless, officials swiftly refuted these claims and clarified that there had been no changes in how Israel was represented on these mapping platforms.

Despite an official stance of neutrality, there appears to be a leaning towards the Palestinian cause in the Chinese media, emphasising Israel’s actions and the civilian casualties in Gaza. On the Chinese social media platform Weibo, a significant portion of netizens have expressed unfavourable opinions towards Israel. Over the past month, there has been a widespread sympathy for Palestinian civilians entangled in the conflict. Similar to other social media platforms like X (formerly Twitter), some prominent Weibo accounts with a huge following have been actively sharing photos and videos from the Gaza strip, depicting people emerging from the rubble, either deceased or alive. This pro-Palestine and anti-Israel sentiments appear to be influenced by the US’ support for Israel and its alignment more with the Western countries than with the Chinese interests.

China’s longstanding policy concerning the Israel-Palestine conflict consistently advocates for a ‘two-state solution’. However, this was not always the case. In the past, China predominantly supported the Palestinian cause. In fact, in 1970, Yasser Arafat, then-Chairman of the Palestine Liberation Organization (PLO), revealed that the People’s Republic of China was “the biggest influence in supporting our revolution and strengthening its perseverance.” Nevertheless, over time, China’s position has evolved to endorse the two-state solution. Under Xi, China has been pushing for a four-point proposal, with the two-state solution serving as its fundamental cornerstone.

After the Hamas attack, the Chinese foreign ministry spokesperson stated, “The fundamental way out of the conflict lies in implementing the two-state solution and establishing an independent State of Palestine.” This position was further affirmed by China’s Special Envoy to the Middle East, Zhai Jun, during the Cairo Summit for Peace. Earlier this year, the former Chinese foreign minister, Qin Gang, who has since disappeared from public view, reaffirmed China’s support for a two-state solution during a phone call with his Israeli counterpart, Eli Cohen. Besides, China even offered to play mediator, a stance that has become less prominent since the conflict broke out last month.

Also read: Israel missing from Chinese digital maps by Baidu and Alibaba, region appears without label

Can China be a peace broker?

As challenging as it may be, China still envisions itself as a potential global peace broker. This is exemplified by its facilitation of reconciliation between Saudi Arabia and Iran. Foreign Minister Wang Yi, after his pivotal role in brokering a peace deal between these two regional powers, declared that China possesses the capability to drive reconciliation efforts in the Middle East. However, the intricate and deeply rooted complexities of the Israel-Palestine conflict pose a formidable challenge to China’s intended role and ambitions as a peace broker in the Middle East. It remains uncertain whether China can wield substantial influence over Israel within this complex geopolitical landscape.

China faces a formidable task in establishing itself as an undisputed peace broker in the Middle East, especially considering the vocal and military support the US provides to Israel. Nevertheless, China could strive to diminish American influence in the region and might seek to establish a narrative that portrays the US as a catalyst for conflicts and an instigator of hostilities, drawing parallels to its stance in the Russia-Ukraine war.

Challenges for China in the Middle East

It aligns better with China’s interests to prioritise its relationships with Arab countries over strengthening ties and siding with Israel— despite the challenges and undesirability it may pose. China places greater importance on being a dependable partner to the Arab countries in the context of this conflict. While China maintains a stance of neutrality (as it claimed it did in the Russia-Ukraine war too), it is inclined to stay in close alignment with the positions of the Arab states—if the need arises. China sees itself as a country with the potential to exert influence in the Middle East, and its outreach in the region has been significant in the past couple of months. Some notable examples include the favourable reception of the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) by several Arab countries, Syrian President Bashar Assad’s successful China visit in September, and the Saudi Arabia-Iran detente earlier this year. This becomes even more significant when the US-led Israel-Saudi negotiations have suffered setbacks due to the ongoing conflict.

Moving forward, China’s trajectory in the Middle East amid the war is expected to face challenges. However, the somewhat waning influence of the US in the region and the potential erosion of the Abraham Accords will bolster China’s outreach initiatives. Should the US struggle to quell the hostilities, it is a possibility that an increasing number of regional countries might lean towards China’s stance of ‘neutrality’ and its vision for ‘peace’, as opposed to the US’ approach to the conflict.

Sana Hashmi, PhD, is a fellow at Taiwan-Asia Exchange Foundation and George H.W. Foundation for US-China Relations. She tweets @sanahashmi1. Views are personal.

(Edited by Prashant)